Sovereignty wins the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, beating Journalism

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Bill Mott is in the Hall of Fame. He won the Kentucky Derby in 2019, but it was by disqualification. The trainer never got to see his horse cross the finish line first. Until now.

In an exciting stretch run Sovereignty and Journalism battled until the final strides when Sovereignty pulled ahead to win the 151st Kentucky Derby by 1½ lengths Saturday.

Sovereignty came to this spot by finishing second in the Florida Derby. But this time he had to navigate the 19-horse field to win on a cold and drizzly day before 147,406 at Churchill Downs.

Journalism, the 7-2 favorite, got crowded and shuffled back at the start of the race but going around the far turn, jockey Umberto Rispoli got him to start picking off horses. Sovereignty was following right behind him. When the horses hit the top of the stretch, it was clear it was down to the two horses.

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Sovereignty finishes ahead of Journalism to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Sovereignty beat pre-race favorite Journalism to win the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby in muddy conditions at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

Entering the race at 9-1 odds, Sovereignty surged down the final stretch, and ran nose-to-nose with Journalism briefly before pulling away. Journalism was second and Baeza was third. Final Gambit finished fourth.

The Bob Baffert-trained Citizen Bull led most of the race, but faded down the final stretch.

This is a developing story. The Times will have more soon.

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Watch the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Trainer Richard Mandella doesn‘t often ship from Santa Anita to Churchill Downs, but when he does, he means business.

He proved it again Saturday in the $1 million Derby City Distaff when Kopion blew away he competition to win the seven-furlong race by three lengths.

One of the last times he was at Churchill was 2019 when he brought Omaha Beach to Kentucky as the favorite for the Derby. However, he scratched out a few days before the race with a trapped epiglottis.

As it turns out, Kopion is a daughter of Omaha Beach. She is certainly built for speed having won all five of her races seven furlongs or shorter. Her only two losses were at longer races.

This was her first race outside of Southern California. She had previously won the Santa Ynez, La Brea and Santa Monica, all at Santa Anita.

Bob Baffert’s Hope Road finished second making it a Southern California exacta. Kopion paid $7.48 to win.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The voice is familiar from watching the Kentucky Derby on television. And, for one month a year, it’s familiar to those going to the fall meeting at Del Mar.

Now, Larry Collmus will be the voice of Del Mar for both the classic summer meeting and the fall, replacing the legendary Trevor Denman, who retired.

His part-time gig calling the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Breeders’ Cup for NBC will set a record. This will be his 15th straight time calling the Derby for NBC, breaking the record of Dave Johnson. For a while, NBC has chosen to use its own race caller rather than the track announcer. Those on-site at Churchill Downs will not hear Collmus but Travis Stone, the regular race caller at Churchill Downs.

“They told me [this week] about this consecutive streak that I had going on,” Collmus said. “This will be the 15th straight Derby. I knew that. I had no idea it would become the longest streak.

“Just to hear the names Dave Johnson, Tom Durkin, and be considered alongside them is an amazing thing because I grew up listening to them and idolizing them. Dave Johnson was actually a guy who was really helpful to me starting out. I called my first race at 18 years old. I was the backup announcer. He came up to call the Preakness. ‘Oh, my God, that’s Dave Johnson.’ He helped me out starting in the business. Now, to have called more consecutive Kentucky Derbies than him is mind-blowing to me.”

Collmus, who draws the silks of each horse in the Derby to help him familiarize them, believes preparation is key.

“It never gets easier,” he said. “Every year it’s a challenge. Every year, 20 horses come at you. You never know if you’re going to have to deal with a sloppy racetrack. One thing you’re always having to deal with is keeping your nerves in check, your heart rate down, and getting those horses around the track.

Despite the pressure, Collmus wouldn’t rather be anywhere else, although there is a sigh of relief when it’s over.

“It’s something that I love doing every year,” he said. “When people say, ‘What’s the best part of the Derby for you?’ For me, the answer is, ‘When it’s over.’ All the preparation that you put into it, it comes down to those final two minutes. When they cross the wire, your job is done. It’s an amazing experience.

“I can’t wait to do it again this year.”

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The final win pool for the 151st Kentucky Derby will be in excess of $50 million. It is currently at $47.506 million. And Journalism will go to post as the favorite. His current odds are 4-1.

Unlike when you bet other races where there can be big odds swings right before post, it won’t happen here. The computer bettors who made those swings possible, much to the disdain of average bettors, are generally playing exotics such as trifectas and superfectas. Or, they are playing what’s called horizontal betting, which means they are playing multiple consecutive races.

Almost $8 million has been bet so far on Journalism as he stays at 4-1. Again, that would be a win price of around $10.

Sandman is the second choice at 5-1 followed by Luxor Café at 8-1 and Sovereignty at 9-1. All other horses are in double figures.

Here are the odds with less than one hour to go:

1. Citizen Bull 12-1

2. Neoequos 38-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 11-1

6. Admire Daytona 40-1

7. Luxor Café 8-1

8. Journalism 4-1

9. Burnham Square 18-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 27-1

12. East Avenue 39-1

13. Publisher 31-1

14. Tiztastic 22-1

15. Render Judgment 16-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 9-1

19. Chunk of Gold 26-1

20. Owen Almighty 38-1

21. Baeza 17-1

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The backstretch at Churchill Downs is a magical place during Kentucky Derby week. Big-name trainers talking to well-heeled owners, media haplessly standing around hoping to grab a quote or a quick stand-up interview. Yet the most important part of this annual carnival of horsedom is that one of the occupants will be the next winner of the Kentucky Derby.

Not all of the 1,500 horses stabled are eligible to race in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, only 20 of them make the starting gate and you get only one chance — when they are a 3-year-old.

But if you are looking for a special place, look no further than Barn 33. What makes it stand out is that’s where way too many people congregate, hoping to either talk to, snap a picture with or interview the most famous person in racing, trainer Bob Baffert.

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Owner: CRK Stable and Grandview Equine

Purchase price: $350,000

Sire: McKinzie

Lifetime record: 4-1-2-0

Winnings: $148,500

Derby points: 37.5

Last race: Second in the Santa Anita Derby

Morning line: 12-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 8-1

Comment: This is the wise-guy horse, except so many people are high on him that it’s not going to surprise anyone if he wins or hits the board. You could very well have a repeat of the Santa Anita Derby with Journalism first and Baeza second. He’s a May foal, so he’s younger than most of the field. He had to get in the race when Rodriguez was scratched. He was disadvantaged by Churchill’s field size penalty, receiving only 37.5 points instead of 50 because it was a field of five. If there were six horses he would have been in the race and not have to wait to see if he was going to get in the field. Trainer John Shirreffs originally did not want to bring him to Churchill if he had to wait. But the owners overruled him. Another good sign, Flavien Prat was working him in the morning even when they didn’t know if he would make the field.

Trainer: Brian Lynch

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Owner: Flying Dutchmen

Purchase price: $350,000

Sire: Speightstown

Lifetime record: 7-3-2-0

Winnings: $499,935

Derby points: 65

Last race: Sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 500-1

Comment: What’s the classic line in the movie “Dumb and Dumber”?: “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.” Well, that should be your philosophy if you plan to play this horse. There’s nothing in his past that tells you he can make 1 ¼ miles. In the Blue Grass, he was second and faded to sixth and the Derby is a furlong longer. Trainer Brian Lynch did not want to run him in this race but was overruled by the owners. His high point was winning the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby. The fair odds are 500-1. Enough said.

The win pool swelled $7 million in an hour making the pool $34.937 million. The odds remained largely unchanged in the last hour.

Journalism, at 4-1, has $5.544 million bet on him to win. Sandman, the 5-1 second choice, is at $4.459 million.

The Derby is up after next race but there is a large gap between races.

Here are the odds with two hours to go:

1. Citizen Bull 12-1

2. Neoequos 38-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 11-1

6. Admire Daytona 39-1

7. Luxor Café 8-1

8. Journalism 4-1

9. Burnham Square 17-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 27-1

12. East Avenue 39-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 21-1

15. Render Judgment 16-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 10-1

19. Chunk of Gold 26-1

20. Owen Almighty 37-1

21. Baeza 17-1

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The much anticipated return of Nysos, after a 15-month layoff, went well but without a win. Mindframe, going eight-wide in the stretch, got up to win by a neck with four horses stretch across the track in the $1 million Churchill Downs, a seven-furlong race.

Nysos finished in a dead heat for second with Banishing.

Nysos hadn’t run since last year’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. He was considered Bob Baffert’s best horse until he was injured. He won his first three races by a combined 26 ¾ lengths.

“He ran great,” said Nysos’ jockey Flavien Prat. “The trip was good. I thought when I had that horse outside of me, I thought the hardest part was done, but then Mindframe came on the outside and nailed us. It was a good run and he hasn’t run for over a year.”

It’s unclear what his next race will be but the Met Mile at Saratoga on Belmont Stakes day is certainly a possibility.

Trainer: Ethan West

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Owner: Terry L. Stephens

Purchase price: $2,500

Sire: Preservationist

Lifetime record: 4-1-3-0

Winnings: $348,818

Derby points: 75

Last race: Second in the Louisiana Derby

Morning line: 20-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 30-1

Comment: This is a very intriguing horse and might be the big long-shot play. His only win was in a maiden race but his last two races were seconds in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. It is the first Derby for trainer Ethan West and the second Derby for jockey Jareth Loveberry, who finished second on Two Phil’s two years ago. Expect the colt to be mid-pack because he’s not a deep closer like some of the other horses on the outside. He was bought for $2,500 and has earned almost $350,000. Don’t overlook him.

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Owner: Godolphin

Purchase price: Homebred

Sire: Into Mischief

Lifetime record: 5-2-2-0

Winnings: $572,800

Derby points: 110

Last race: Second in the Florida Derby

Morning line: 7-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 8-1

Comment: He’s a very solid second choice at 5-1. And he has a very good trainer in Bill Mott, whose only Derby win came by disqualification when Country House was elevated over Maximum Security. Sovereignty was the favorite in the Florida Derby after winning the Street Sense and Fountain of Youth. But he finished second behind Tappan Street from an outside post. Remember, Mage won the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the Florida Derby. Sovereignty should get plenty of action and will likely be on a lot of tri and super tickets. Leave him out at your own peril.

Kentucky Derby entrant American Promise works out at Churchill Downs Tuesday in Louisville, Ky.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Things remained mostly unchanged in the odds for the Kentucky Derby. The rain has backed off but it’s unlikely the track will dry out enough. Most of the weather is to the east of the track.

Journalism remained the favorite at 4-1 with Sandman at 5-1.

Journalism is coming off an impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Sandman won the Arkansas Derby. They were very different races in that Journalism had to overcome trouble, while Sandman had the trip perfectly set up for him.

One of the more puzzling betting trends for the day is the love that American Promise is getting. In the last hour, he went from 12-1 to 11-1. His last race was an impressive win in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs, a track owned by Churchill Downs. It took him six tries to break his maiden and he finished eighth over a sloppy Churchill Downs track in September.

There is now $27.061 million in the win pool.

Here are the odds with three hours to go.

1. Citizen Bull 12-1

2. Neoequos 38-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 11-1

6. Admire Daytona 39-1

7. Luxor Café 8-1

8. Journalism 4-1

9. Burnham Square 17-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 27-1

12. East Avenue 39-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 21-1

15. Render Judgment 15-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 10-1

19. Chunk of Gold 26-1

20. Owen Almighty 37-1

21. Baeza 17-1

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Owners: D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables

Purchase price: $1,200,000

Sire: Tapit

Lifetime record: 8-3-1-2

Winnings: $1,251,595

Derby points: 129

Last race: Won the Arkansas Derby

Morning line: 6-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 13-1

Comment: There is a lot of interest in this colt but the morning line of 6-1 may be too low. Veteran handicappers believe he will go off in double digits. So, if you really like him, you may like the final odds. The troubling thing about this three-time winner has been his performance at Churchill Downs where he finished fifth, fifth and third. Normally when a trainer says a horse doesn’t like the surface, it usually means they have no idea why the horse didn’t run well. In this case, Sandman may actually not like the track. He is a closer, so you won’t see him until late.

Trainer: Lonnie Briley

Jockey: Juan Vargas

Owner: Norman Stables

Purchase price: $70,000

Sire: Coal Front

Lifetime record: 8-5-0-1

Winnings: $1,888,875

Derby points: 95

Last race: Third in the Arkansas Derby

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 40-1

Comment: The story around this horse focuses on his 72-year-old trainer Lonnie Briley. He has captivated the media with his story of perseverance and struggle. But a great story doesn’t always translate into a horse that can compete at this level. He may have peaked when he won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. He is seasoned with eight races, five of those wins. But that also means he hasn’t had a break from racing. He’s run at six different tracks, some of those unknown to the casual fan. He’s won at Evangeline Downs, Delta Downs and Remington Park. Being on the outside may help him, but probably not enough.

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Owners: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing and Rocket Ship Racing

Purchase price: $310,000

Sire: Blame

Lifetime record: 7-1-2-1

Winnings: $250,672

Derby points: 39

Last race: Fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 1,000-1

Comment: The Horse Racing Nation fair odds, helping you to find overlays and underlays, have him at 1,000-1. Do you need to know more? Legendary country singer Toby Keith had a piece of the horse until Keith died, so it went to his heirs. He got in when Florida Derby winner Tappan Street scratched out with a minor injury. This might be a case where ownership just wanted the Derby experience. As Keith once wrote and sang, “I’m not as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was.” That once might be the only chance the horse has to finish on top. Don’t count on it.

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Owners: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith

Purchase price: $335,000

Sire: Tiz the Law

Lifetime record: 8-3-1-2

Winnings: $1,549,800

Derby points: 119

Last race: Won the Louisiana Derby

Morning line: 20-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 40-1

Comment: If you search, you can find reasons to like this horse. He’s run twice at Churchill Downs, a second and a third. He’s also got Joel Rosario in the saddle. And, he’s also won $1.5 million, easily eclipsing the $335,000 purchase price. He’s finished in front of Sandman, who is likely to be the second or third favorite. But it would be a tall order for him to find his way to the top of the ticket. His breeding is exceptional with Tiz the Law as the sire and Tapit as mare. He’ll need some luck to hit the board, but with 20 starters, every horse — except maybe Journalism — will need some luck to get the blanket of roses.

People stand against a wall at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby horse race Saturday in Louisville, Ky.

(Jon Cherry / Associated Press)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Journalism betting lead over Sandman grew by about $100,000 over the last hour. Journalism has had $3.583 million bet on to win the Kentucky Derby. While, Sandman totals in at $2.857 million. Both retained the same odds they had during the previous hour, with Journalism at 4-1 and Sandman at 5-1.

It means Journalism would return $10 for every $2 bet, while a Sandman win would return $12 to his backers.

Betting on the Derby is starting to pick up, with around $3 million wagered in the last hour. The betting totals are not just on-track but through ADWs (advance deposit wagering), which is how most people bet now.

The tote board has mostly been stable all day with no wild swings of numbers. So far, $21.844 million has been bet to win on the race.

Here are the odds with four hours to go:

1. Citizen Bull 13-1

2. Neoequos 38-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 12-1

6. Admire Daytona 39-1

7. Luxor Café 8-1

8. Journalism 4-1

9. Burnham Square 17-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 28-1

12. East Avenue 39-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 21-1

15. Render Judgment 16-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 9-1

19. Chunk of Gold 27-1

20. Owen Almighty 37-1

21. Baeza 17-1

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Owner: Gus King and Estate of Brereton C. Jones

Purchase price: $600,000

Sire: American Pharoah

Lifetime record: 7-0-2-3

Winnings: $407,756

Derby points: 60

Last race: Second in Arkansas Derby

Morning line: 20-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 45-1

Comment: Publisher is the only maiden in the race. When was the last time a maiden won the Derby? How about 1933 when Brokers Tip won. Only three maidens have won, but one of those was Sir Barton in 1919, who went on to win the first Triple Crown, even though there wasn’t a Triple Crown at that time. For some perspective, that date was within shouting distance of World War I. Add in the fact that incredibly talented trainer and jockey Steve Asmussen and Irad Ortiz, Jr. have never won a Derby and it seems like maybe this isn’t the play. Publisher has also had problems getting away from the gate. But, no doubt, people in news business might be looking at a Journalism-Publisher exacta, if only for fun.

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Manny Franco

Owner: Godolphin

Purchase price: Homebred

Sire: Medaglia d’Oro

Lifetime record: 5-2-1-0

Winnings: $654,395

Derby points: 60

Last race: Second in the Blue Grass Stakes

Morning line: 20-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 25-1

Comment: He is the only speed on the outside, which may be an advantage — or maybe not. He looked gangbusters after a huge win in the Breeders’ Futurity in October. But then things went south. He finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and followed that with a 10th in the Risen Star, both as the favorite. Write him off? Well, then he came back with a surprising second in the Blue Grass Stakes. This will be his second race in a row with blinkers, so maybe that will make a difference. He seems to run very well at Keeneland, but the Derby is at Churchill Downs.

Trainer: Whit Beckman

Jockey: Joe Ramos

Owner: Two Eight Racing, Berry Family Racing and Kaleta Racing

Purchase price: $72,000

Sire: Karakontie

Lifetime record: 6-2-2-0

Winnings: $295,800

Derby points: 50

Last race: Second in Jeff Ruby Steaks

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 100-1

Comment: The most interesting thing about this horse is that he is partly owned by former Dodger Jayson Werth, known in this world as Two Eight Racing. Werth’s playing number, well, it’s an easy guess. This will be the horse’s first time on the dirt having run on the turf five times and the synthetic once. His last race was a second on the Turfway synthetic in the Jeff Ruby. He is a late runner, but there are better closers in the race. It’s difficult to see him hitting the board, but no one gave Rich Strike a chance in 2022.

A person places a bet at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby Saturday in Louisville, Ky.

(Brynn Anderson / Associated Press)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — At last, the odds at the very top have changed as Journalism, the favorite, went from 7-2 to 4-1. Sandman is second at 5-1. There is about $600,000 in money bet separating them. Journalism has had $2.926 million bet on him while Sandman comes in at $2.327 million.

The total win pool has climbed to $17.717 million. The place (first or second) pool was at $3.960 million and the show pool (first, second or third) was at $4.064 million.

Luxor Café continues to gain traction and moved 9-1 to 8-1 in the last hour. Sovereignty has held steady at 9-1 all day. Every other horse is in double digits.

Here are the odds with five hours to go:

1. Citizen Bull 13-1

2. Neoequos 38-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 12-1

6. Admire Daytona 39-1

7. Luxor Café 8-1

8. Journalism 4-1

9. Burnham Square 17-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 28-1

12. East Avenue 38-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 20-1

15. Render Judgment 15-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 9-1

19. Chunk of Gold 27-1

20. Owen Almighty 37-1

21. Baeza 17-1

Trainer: Ian Wilkes

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds

Purchase price: Homebred

Sire: Liam’s Map

Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1

Winnings: $977,755

Derby points: 130

Last race: Won the Blue Grass Stakes

Morning line: 12-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 12-1

Comment: Burnham Square is the only gelding in the race, meaning we might see him run for a while. But will we see him contending at the end? He has last year’s winning jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., so don’t be surprised if Hernandez figures out how to get him to the rail quickly. He was high on the radar after winning the Holy Bull at Gulfstream but then dropped an uninspired fourth in the Fountain of Youth. He went to Keeneland for the Blue Grass and rallied to win by a nose. He’ll be coming late, but the question is if he gets in any trouble along the way. Always a possibility in a 20-horse race.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The California Crown, a valiant attempt by The Stronach Group to create a big event for Santa Anita, is gone after one year.

The event was filled with ambition and a hope that it could create the buzz that the Pegasus World Cup had at its sister property at Gulfstream Park in South Florida.

But it was, by all visible indications, not the success they had hoped for. Tickets were offered for free at neighborhood bars, according to several attendees at the event. The track announced a crowd of 21,812. It was disputed by the spokesman for the California Horse Racing Board, which sent an email, obtained by The Times, to the commissioners explaining why the CHRB does not report attendance figures because of their inaccuracy.

The news of its demise was first reported by Ron Flatter of Horse Racing Nation.

Santa Anita did not offer a plausible explanation for the event ending, or pausing, instead relying on vague explanations of its demise.

“We have made the decision to pause the California Crown as we continue to have conversations with our event partners regarding the evolution of the overall brand,” Amy Zimmerman, a Santa Anita executive, told Horse Racing Nation in a statement.

The California Crown tried to meld an entertainment experience and a horse racing event. In fact, they booked Shaboozey, well before he was a became a national sensation.

The racing centerpiece was the $1 million Awesome Again, but has been replaced by the Goodwood Stakes. The purse is likely to be $300,000, the minimum required for a Grade 1 race.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The win pool continues to grow hitting $14.504 million with plenty of time before the running of the 151^st Kentucky Derby.

Journalism has not wavered as the favorite, getting 17% of all the win bets. Translated, it means the horse is at 7-2. Sandman is second with 13% of the wagers or 5-1. Following the pair is Sovereignty and Luxor Café, both at 9-1. If Luxor Café were to win, he would be the first Japanese horse to ever win the Derby.

The second most popular bet remains the trifecta (first, second and third) with $7.081 million bet. There has $5.682 bet in the exacta (first and second). Because of the number of horses, the trifecta is popular because it usually yields a very good payout.

Neoequos continues to have odds drop going from 41-1 to 38-1 in the last three hours. And, Admire Daytona continues the go the other way having gone from 34-1 to 38-1 in the last three hours.

Here are the odds with six hours to go.

1. Citizen Bull 13-1

2. Neoequos 38-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 12-1

6. Admire Daytona 38-1

7. Luxor Café 9-1

8. Journalism 7-2

9. Burnham Square 16-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 29-1

12. East Avenue 38-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 20-1

15. Render Judgment 15-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 9-1

19. Chunk of Gold 27-1

20. Owen Almighty 38-1

21. Baeza 17-1

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Owners: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert V. LaPenta, Elaine Stables 5, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith

Purchase price: $825,000

Sire: Curlin

Lifetime record: 5-4-0-1

Winnings: $638,880

Derby points: 122.5

Last race: Won the Santa Anita Derby

Morning line: 3-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 5-2

Comment: The most difficult thing about Journalism, the horse, is finding a reason not to like him. Guessing that some will question the short fields he’s been running against in California. But that’s not his fault. Michael McCarthy is probably underrated as a trainer, but make no mistake, he’s top shelf when it comes to conditioning. Journalism has a great post in the eight. The speed is inside of him and the closers are far outside. Expect him to set up off the pace but still close to the lead. His breeding of Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare should mean he can easily make the distance. After winning the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby he wasn’t even breathing hard. It was an important race because he got in trouble when a horse backed up on him. But he re-rallied to win easily beating a small but strong field. The surprise will be if he’s not in contention.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — So you’re looking for some handicapping advice. The first rule is don’t listen to anyone who thinks they know what they are doing. Just figure it out yourself.

In order to help bettors, Brisnet.com, the data company owned by Churchill Downs, provides some analysis by breaking horses down into categories.

So, here is a look at the top 10 (and ties) horses in six different categories. (Note: There are no stats for the two Japanese horses, Admire Daytona and Luxor Café.)

Speed Last Race

Journalism (108), Baeza (107), American Promise (105), Final Gambit (101), Sandman (101), Tiztastic (100), Publisher (98), Chunk of Gold (98), Citizen Bull (97), Burnham Square (97), Flying Mohawk (97), East Avenue (97).

Back Speed

Journalism (108), Baeza (107), American Promise (105), Final Gambit (101), Sandman (101), Tiztastic (100), Publisher (98), Chunk of Gold (98), Citizen Bull (97), Burnham Square (97), Flying Mohawk (97), East Avenue (97).

Average Class Last 3 Races

Journalism (121.0), Sandman (120.4), Sovereignty (120.1), Burnham Square (119.8), Citizen Bull (119.7), Owen Almighty (119.3), Tiztastic (118.9), Coal Battle (118.8), Neoequos (118.6), Publisher (118.5).

Prime Power

Sandman (148.5), Journalism (147.3), Coal Battle (146.3), East Avenue (145.6), Citizen Bull (145.5), Tiztastic (144.9), Sovereignty (144.2), Burnham Square (144.1), Publisher (143.1), American Promise (142.5).

Early Pace Last Race

Chunk of Gold (106), East Avenue (104), Coal Battle (103), Citizen Bull (99), Owen Almighty (98), American Promise (97), Baeza (97), Journalism (96), Sandman (94), Tiztastic (92), Render Judgment (92).

Last Pace Last Race

Final Gambit (112), Journalism (109), Flying Mohawk (102), Baeza (102), Sovereignty (97), American Promise (93), Burnham Square (89), Sandman (88), Publisher (87), Neoequos (83), East Avenue (83).

Trainer: Noriyuki Hori

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Owner: Koichi Nishikawa

Purchase price: Homebred

Sire: American Pharoah

Lifetime record: 6-4-1-0

Winnings: $379,057

Derby points: Automatic qualifier by winning Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby

Last race: Won the Fukuryu Stakes

Morning line: 15-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 16-1

Comment: A horse from Japan has never won the Kentucky Derby. The odds say it will happen some day, but is this the year? He has won his last four races. Many will remember last year when Forever Young, also from Japan, came very close to winning the Derby. Luxor Café is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He does like an off track and there is rain expected earlier in the day. Expect him to get some action and leave him out of the top four at your own risk.

Horses run on a muddy track during an undercard race at Churchill Downs on Saturday in Louisville, Ky.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Trainer Bob Baffert picked up a win on the undercard when Goal Oriented went gate to write to win the third race on the 14-race card.

Goal Oriented went off as the favorite in the 1 1/16 mile allowance race. It was his second lifetime start, having won his debut at Santa Anita on April 6. The 3-year-olt colt is owned by the same partnership that also owns Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. Her was bought at the 2023 Keeneland sale for $425,000.

He was ridden on Saturday by Flavien Prat, who will ride the John Shirreffs-trained Baeza in the Kentucky Derby. Juan Hernandez rode the colt in his first race but was on a second Baffert starter on Saturday. Tiz Secure, who finished fourth in the Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita, finished third in the allowance. He is a homebred and owned partly by Karl Watson and Paul Weitman. The other owners are Mike Pegram and Jill Baffert, Bob’s wife.

Goal Oriented paid $4.62 to win.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — There are few people, not just in racing, but anywhere, nicer than Donna Barton Brothers. You might remember her as a jockey, where she won more than 1,100 races. But for the last two decades she is more familiar as the first person to talk to the winning jockey after winning the Kentucky Derby.

She is the person atop a horse, rushing over to capture the emotions of the jockey. Generally the answers are raw and not insightful and there is the obligatory thanking of people that helped make it happen. You can almost count on a jockey thanking the trainer, owner and, sometimes, a supreme being.

This week, as she does almost annually, she participated in an NBC conference call where she chatted with the media, of which she is a member.

She offered some thoughts about how covering the Kentucky Derby has changed over the years.

“[In 2001], we had a 90-minute broadcast at that time,” Brothers said. “At that time, we thought 90 minutes to cover a two-minute race, how are we going to fill all this time? Now we’re on the air for seven and a half hours on Saturday, five hours on Kentucky Oaks day, and we are still trying to figure out how we’re going to get this story in and that story in because there are so many great stories to tell.”

Brothers recalled some of her more memorable Derbies.

“I’ll have to go back to 2004,” she said. “It was memorable in that that was the Derby that Smarty Jones won. It was also Bob Costas’ first time joining our team. … Bob Costas had never covered horse racing before. He had been assured by [producer] David Michaels that he would not be put in a position where he would have to pretend to be an expert on the sport.

“Well, about an hour and a half before the Kentucky Derby, before our coverage was to go on live, we had this massive deluge. All of our comms went down. Nobody’s microphones or cameras were working. We’re now an hour to going live. The only person who has any communication is Bob Costas. He wasn’t too happy about that.

“Luckily, as always, such a great production team got everything up and running. It was a great Derby to remember.”

And then there was the COVID year in which the Derby was held in September.

“It was surreal to be there live because we didn’t have a live audience of fans, Brothers said. “It was also very interesting and memorable for lots of good reasons, in that the stories were still prevailing. There were still winning connections who got their dreams finally realized. There was also the reality of loss for many people who didn’t get to the Derby.”

Brothers’ role in the coverage is both planned and spontaneous.

“One of the things I do love about my role on horseback is that I’m in a position to talk to the jockey right after the race, while they’re still in their heart and before they have a chance to really start to intellectualize what happened,” she said. “I try to get in there quickly, give them a chance to catch their breath, but quickly enough to where they’re still feeling what they felt about crossing the wire first in the Kentucky Derby.

“We try to capture that emotion right away. My first question is never going to be tell me about your trip. We try to capture that and bring it into the living rooms of people who are watching across the United States and elsewhere.”

She’ll be repeating that role about 4:05 p.m. on Saturday.

Kentucky Derby entrant Journalism waits to get a bath after a workout at Churchill Downs Wednesday in Louisville, Ky.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Journalism remains the favorite for the Kentucky Derby and became the first horse to have more than $2 million bet on him to win. The total win pool is about $11.7 million. Sandman remained the second betting choice.

The biggest mover in odds on Saturday is Neoequos, who started at 41-1 and has moved to 39-1 in the last two hours. It becomes more difficult to significantly change odds as more money is added into the mutuel pool. No doubt, the lower odds are based on his allowance race on Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park, which he won easily in the slop. The Churchill track is currently listed as sloppy.

Neoequos moved the most in early Kentucky Derby betting odds, but American Promise has generated the most surprising interest given its recent struggles.

(Google Trends)

There also appears to be less and less interest in Admire Daytona, winner of the UAE Derby. The Japanese-bred colt has gone from 34-1 to 37-1 in the past two hours. The other Japanese horse, Luxor Café is holding steady at 9-1.

The biggest surprise is American Promise, who was 30-1 on the morning line. He has been at 12-1 all morning. What makes it puzzling is that he finished eighth in September over a sloppy Churchill Downs track.

Here are the odds with seven hours to go:

1. Citizen Bull 13-1

2. Neoequos 39-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 12-1

6. Admire Daytona 37-1

7. Luxor Café 9-1

8. Journalism 7-2

9. Burnham Square 16-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 29-1

12. East Avenue 38-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 20-1

15. Render Judgment 15-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 9-1

19. Chunk of Gold 28-1

20. Owen Almighty 38-1

21. Baeza 18-1

Trainer: Yukihiro Kato

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Owner: Junko Kondo

Purchase price: $480,276

Sire: Drefong

Lifetime record: 6-2-2-0

Winnings: $672,047

Derby points: Automatic qualifier by winning Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby

Last race: Won UAE Derby

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 50-1

Comment: Every thought about this horse compares him to the other Japanese horse, Luxor Café, who has beaten Admire Daytona twice. He won the UAE Derby by a nose in a time that was almost a second slower than last year. No horse who ran in the Middle East has won the Derby. That likely won’t change this year. Still, he is a frontrunner in a race with a few of those. He’s more likely to screw up the race than win it. His sire, Drefong, was once trained by Bob Baffert.

Trainer: Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Nik Juarez

Owner: BC Stables

Purchase price: $750,000

Sire: Justify

Lifetime record: 9-2-1-1

Winnings: $444,874

Derby points: 55

Last race: Won the Virginia Derby

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 64-1

Comment: This will be the 51st Kentucky Derby starter for Wayne Lukas. The problem is American Promise is not as fast as the other speed horses who are stuck on the inside. His Virginia Derby win, by 7 ¼ lengths, was impressive but the only reason the race is on the Kentucky Derby trail is because Colonial Downs is owned by Churchill Downs. It took him six starts to break his maiden, not a good sign. He is the most experienced horse in the race with nine starts. Lukas likes to run his horses, so what do you make of his seven weeks rest? He’s a tough sell.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Planning to come to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby in 2026 or at some point in the future? Here’s what you need to know. In short, few cities know how to gouge people better than Louisville during Derby week.

It’s more than an anecdotal statistic.

VegasInsider.com did an analysis of 1,300 accommodation listings on Booking.com and Airbnb in the greater Louisville area and their results were not surprising for anyone who has come to this city and plans to stay around the days of the Kentucky Derby.

The flaw in the survey is it is based on a two-night stay, when in fact most hotels, should you go that option, have a minimum three-night stay.

For example, The Times was staying for $125 a night until Thursday, when it jumped to closer to $600 a night. And that’s at a major chain not named Hilton or Hyatt. Not that it would make a difference.

Here are the results:

• The average two-night stay on Booking is $2,454, which is a 270% increase over the week before and a 290% increase over the week after.
• Checking Airbnb, the average is $1,909, or a 241% increase over the week before and a 383% increase over the week after.
• Combining the two, it averages to $2,079, or 245% increase the week before and 383% the week after.

Other highlights of the survey include:

• The least expensive option on Booking.com was $140 a night eight miles from Churchill Downs.
• The most expensive accommodation on Airbnb is a seven-bedroom ranch about 25 miles from Churchill for $70,457. For reference, one of the horses in the Derby was bought for $2,500.

So, if you need seven bedrooms, maybe the cast of Yellowjackets, you’ve got your place.

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Luan Machado

Owner: Juddmonte

Purchase price: Homebred

Sire: Not This Time

Lifetime record: 4-2-1-1

Winnings: $520,639

Derby points: 100

Last race: Won Jeff Ruby Steaks

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 30-1

Comment: This will be his first race on the dirt after running three times on the Turfway synthetic and once on the Churchill turf. The connections of Juddmonte and Cox are strong. But he’s a closer and it wouldn’t surprise to see him at the back going into the first turn. His Jeff Ruby Steaks win was impressive. So, against this field he may draw some action at the bottom of trifectas and superfectas. He will get the distance and should be coming late.

Kentucky Derby hopeful Admire Daytona works out at Churchill Downs Monday in Louisville, Ky.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — As the first of 14 races approached at Churchill Downs, betting on the Kentucky Derby remains slow compared to what it will be as post-time approaches.

The win pool is up to about $9.5 million and Journalism remains the favorite at 7-2, or 17% of the total win pool. Sandman is second at 5-1 or 13%.

Other bets are also starting to accumulate with $3.8 million bet on exactas, $4.7 million on trifectas and $142,000 on superfectas.

Horses that saw their odds drop in the last hour are Neoequos, Luxor Café, Publisher, Coal Battle and Owen Almighty. Horses was who their odds go up in that time are Admire Daytona and Tiztastic.

Here are the odds with eight hours to go:

1. Citizen Bull 13-1

2. Neoequos 40-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 12-1

6. Admire Daytona 36-1

7. Luxor Café 9-1

8. Journalism 7-2

9. Burnham Square 16-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 29-1

12. East Avenue 37-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 20-1

15. Render Judgment 15-1

16. Coal Battle 24-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 9-1

19. Chunk of Gold 28-1

20. Owen Almighty 38-1

21. Baeza 18-1

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — One of the best predictors of how the betting will go in the Kentucky Derby, or racing in general, is to look at statistics called “will pays.” In this case, you look at who won the Kentucky Oaks — which was Good Cheer — and see what the probable prices on a double with the winner of the Kentucky Derby will be, or will pay.

It’s no surprise that Journalism is the overwhelming favorite followed by Sovereignty, Sandman, Baeza and Luxor Café.

So here is how much the Oaks-Derby Double will pay with each of the horses. Remember, this is Kentucky, which has penny breakage, meaning the payoffs are to the penny, not to the dime as they are pretty much everywhere else, including California.

1. Citizen Bull $118.02
2. Neoequos $481.00
3. Final Gambit $118.40
4. Rodriguez (scratched)
5. American Promise $163.68
6. Admire Daytona $340.84
7. Luxor Café $66.98
8. Journalism $14.86
9. Burnham Square $75.12
10. Grande (scratched)
11. Flying Mohawk $469.06
12. East Avenue $155.52
13. Publisher $172.38
14. Tiztastic $139.18
15. Render Judgement $537.74
16. Coal Battle $212.04
17. Sandman $61.32
18. Sovereignty $31.56
19. Chunk of Gold $328.68
20. Owen Almighty $560.38
21. Baeza $64.96

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Betting on the Kentucky Derby started earlier in the week, meaning the mutuel win pool — the money wagered — already had almost $8 million in it. For comparison purposes, the total handle of all bets on Friday’s nine-race card at Santa Anita was about $7.5 million.

The odds usually don’t change significantly during the day, but bettors watch to see how much value they can get out of their bets. The payoffs are determined once the pool closes. The odds when you placed your bet are not considered.

As expected, Journalism is the current favorite at 7-2 followed by Sandman, Sovereignty, Luxor Café and, inexplicably, American Promise, who is at 12-1 but was 30-1 on the morning line.

Here are the odds with nine hours to go:

1. Citizen Bull 13-1

2. Neoequos 41-1

3. Final Gambit 15-1

4. Rodriguez (scratched)

5. American Promise 12-1

6. Admire Daytona 34-1

7. Luxor Café 10-1

8. Journalism 7-2

9. Burnham Square 16-1

10. Grande (scratched)

11. Flying Mohawk 30-1

12. East Avenue 37-1

13. Publisher 30-1

14. Tiztastic 19-1

15. Render Judgment 15-1

16. Coal Battle 25-1

17. Sandman 5-1

18. Sovereignty 9-1

19. Chunk of Gold 28-1

20. Owen Almighty 39-1

21. Baeza 18-1

Google users searched for information about Kentucky Derby longshot “Anerican Promise” early Saturday morning, surpassing queries about other race favorites.

(Google Trends)

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Jockey: Luis Saez

Owners: C2 Racing Stable, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, Stefania Farms, Ken T. Reimer, Paul Braverman and Timothy Pinch

Purchase price: $22,000

Sire: Neolithic

Lifetime record: 7-2-2-2

Winnings: $291,050

Derby points: 40

Last race: Third in Florida Derby

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 100-1

Comment: He’s never won in a race longer than six furlongs, and the Derby is 10. He led in the Florida Derby before fading. So, why he’s in the Derby is a bit of a mystery. He’ll get his fourth jockey in four races. Neoequos has never finished out of the money except for his first race when he lost his jockey. His highest-level win was in an allowance race. Tough to make a case for him.

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan

Purchase price: $675,000

Sire: Into Mischief

Lifetime record: 6-4-0-1

Winnings: $1,451,000

Derby points: 71.25

Last race: Fourth in Santa Anita Derby

Morning line: 20-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 40-1

Comment: He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was named the Eclipse Award top 2-year-old male. In his first race this year, he won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, beating stablemate Rodriguez. But then he had an inexplicable performance in the Santa Anita Derby where he finished fourth in a five-horse field. If you draw a line through that race, he looks like a strong contender. But, he doesn’t seem to have moved forward as a 3-year-old. Trainer Bob Baffert rarely puts a horse in the Derby whose last race was so miserable. So if Baffert sees something, so should you, except he drew the one hole. Baffert often jokes that when a race is drawn they put his horse in the one, then draw the rest of the field. Citizen Bull has to go hot out of the gate and that could compromise him. The last winner from the one was Ferdinand in 1986.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — No doubt about it, it will be a wet Kentucky Derby.

The rain started overnight and will continue all day and night. It will mostly be light to moderate.

According to The Weather Channel, the peak rain time will be in the early afternoon with between a 70% to 90% chance of precipitation.

The race is scheduled for around 7 p.m. ET with the rain chances at 65% and a temperature of 60 degrees. Things will start to taper off around 11 p.m. ET.

On Friday, racing was delayed and the track issued a severe weather warning urging patrons to seek shelter. The wind even knocked over metal barricades along the road that leads to Churchill Downs, making it difficult for buses to get to the track. Virtually everyone who attends the races parks about two miles away at the Kentucky Exposition Center and then are transported by an army of buses.

It’s unclear what condition the track will be in or which horses will benefit. The favorite, Santa Anita-based Journalism, is the son of Curlin, who performed well on wet tracks.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — One thing that serious handicappers always want to know is what the weather will be. Rain can affect the track surface and some horses are better on a wet track and others hate it.

Every forecast has a reasonable chance of rain all day. So, it seems like a good time to look at some of the weather records on Derby day, courtesy of the National Weather Service.

The data is for Louisville, not necessarily Churchill Downs. And the records, unless noted, are for the full 24-hour period.

• The wettest Derby was just a few years ago on May 5, 2018. That day 3.15 inches fell with 2.85 inches falling between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. The winner that year was Justify, who went on to win the Triple Crown.
  
• In 150 previous Derbies, 72 (48%) had rain at some point during the day.
  
• The longest streak of Derby days where it rained between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. was seven from 2007 to 2013.
  
• The longest streak of Derby days where it didn’t rain between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. was 12 from 1875 to 1886, if accurate.
  
• In 1989, there was sleet, or frozen rain, from 1:01 p.m. to 1:05 p.m.
  
• The coldest Derby was 36 degrees both on May 4, 1940 and May 4, 1957.
  
• The warmest Derby was 94 degrees on May 2, 1959.

Of course, none of these stats have any bearing on what the weather will be like on Saturday.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Let’s get right to the point. The Kentucky Derby is set to start just before 7 p.m. EDT Saturday in the commonwealth of bourbon and horse racing.

To be even more specific, post time is 6:57 p.m. EDT, although it’s not uncommon for it to be a few minutes later. But not too many minutes, just a couple.

It’s not difficult math to figure out what that means for you since you know where you live but we don’t. So, let’s go down the list.

LOUSIVILLE, Ky. — Common sense tells you that the pressure of being the favorite in the Kentucky Derby can be crushing. If you win, you’ve met expectations. If you lose, you’ve failed. Never mind what it took to get to that point. You were supposed to win and you didn’t.

So, it was a strange feeling to be around Barn 35 at Churchill Downs where Journalism, the 3-1 morning line favorite, was biding his time in preparation for Saturday’s 151st Run for the Roses.

The mood was light, bordering on festive. Trainer Michael McCarthy was telling jokes. He even walked up to a journalist standing to the side and asked if they needed anything from him. That doesn’t happen.